Berlusconi comes to Washington
So, this week Washington was treated to a visit by Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. I submitted the below piece for publication, which no-one chose to pick up. Bastards. Oh well, i leave it to you to judge and please comment on as I am hoping to reconfigure it and aim for another time peg that may present itself. If you are very lucky i may add some post-visit analysis that i will do over the weekend.
Enjoy!
Italy’s left-wing lurch?
As Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi heads back to Italy from what may have been his swansong visit to Washington as Italian premier, the question in U.S. policy maker’s minds is whether Italo-American relations are headed into the same chill waters’ that Spanish-American relations currently languish in. Unfortunately, without some care, the upcoming Italian election could produce a similar result.
While it is premature to write off Prime Minister Berlusconi – he does lay claim to being the first Italian premier since the Second World War to survive an entire term – he has yet to pull ahead in any polls, and he remains personally plagued by scandal (Milanese magistrates are currently investigating him on charges of bribing a British lawyer).
His opponent, center-left former Italian premier Romano Prodi, is not on entirely stable ground himself, leading a fractious coalition that has teetered towards the brink of collapse a number of times in the campaign so far. However, the one topic that has guaranteed him universal support from his center-left ticket is stoking the fires of anti-Americanism and stressing the point that he will withdraw all Italian troops from Iraq once he is elected premier.
To U.S. policy makers this sounds a great deal like the rhetoric heard before Spanish leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s election in 2003. The ouster of pro-American leader Jose Maria Aznar heralded the current period of tension where Prime Minister Zapatero and President George Bush have yet to communicate with each other.
Yet to allow Italo-American relations down this diplomatic path is neither necessary nor advisable. Not only will the United States lose another European ally, but also Italy will find itself going against the grain of the current gradual warming in transatlantic relations championed by new German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
This outcome could be avoided as long as both sides step back from the heated rhetoric that could follow an Italian withdrawal from Iraq in the wake of a Prodi victory.
On the Italian side, Romano Prodi could emphasize his strategy of a “phased” Italian withdrawal: one that envisages replacing a military force with a civilian presence concentrated on aiding Iraqi reconstruction.
Washington would benefit from recognizing the fact that they can ill afford to lose another ally in Europe in such an acrimonious manner.
Adding to this mixture, there is the ever-present fear that Italy will face a terrorist strike just ahead of polling day. Given Spain’s reaction after the 3/11 bombings in Madrid, and the fact that Italy currently appears to be in a very similar domestic space, there is a fear that a fundamentalist group could decide to capitalize on this and strike ahead of the election with the intention of producing a similar result.
Were a lethal terrorist strike to happen, there is every chance that the left wing would mobilize their vote to elect Romano Prodi into office on a more forcefully anti-American mandate that could result in a too hasty Italian withdrawal from Iraq. Some in Washington might accuse Italians of appeasement, and the scenario could play out in a manner reminiscent of when Spain decided to withdraw from Iraq after their 2003 election.
This conjecture could be rendered moot: Prime Minister Berlusconi could still win the election, and terrorists may not manage to strike Italy.
Even if Prime Minister Berlusconi were reelected he would not be likely to serve a full term, and what shortened term he sat would be occupied organizing his succession. Italian troops would still be out of Iraq by the end of the year in accordance with Mr. Berlusconi’s current schedule.
Nevertheless, should current polls hold out, then Romano Prodi will win and there is a strong likelihood that relations between Rome and Washington will move into a more tense space. The troops will still be pulled out of Iraq, simply on a potentially shorter timeline.
American and Italian policy makers need to take steps now to institutionalize relations so that no matter who wins on April 9th, avenues of communication will be kept open and the Italo-American relationship will remain on a good footing. Otherwise, the United States will lose another ally in Europe, and Italians could find themselves damaging the gradual transatlantic warming.
Enjoy!
Italy’s left-wing lurch?
As Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi heads back to Italy from what may have been his swansong visit to Washington as Italian premier, the question in U.S. policy maker’s minds is whether Italo-American relations are headed into the same chill waters’ that Spanish-American relations currently languish in. Unfortunately, without some care, the upcoming Italian election could produce a similar result.
While it is premature to write off Prime Minister Berlusconi – he does lay claim to being the first Italian premier since the Second World War to survive an entire term – he has yet to pull ahead in any polls, and he remains personally plagued by scandal (Milanese magistrates are currently investigating him on charges of bribing a British lawyer).
His opponent, center-left former Italian premier Romano Prodi, is not on entirely stable ground himself, leading a fractious coalition that has teetered towards the brink of collapse a number of times in the campaign so far. However, the one topic that has guaranteed him universal support from his center-left ticket is stoking the fires of anti-Americanism and stressing the point that he will withdraw all Italian troops from Iraq once he is elected premier.
To U.S. policy makers this sounds a great deal like the rhetoric heard before Spanish leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s election in 2003. The ouster of pro-American leader Jose Maria Aznar heralded the current period of tension where Prime Minister Zapatero and President George Bush have yet to communicate with each other.
Yet to allow Italo-American relations down this diplomatic path is neither necessary nor advisable. Not only will the United States lose another European ally, but also Italy will find itself going against the grain of the current gradual warming in transatlantic relations championed by new German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
This outcome could be avoided as long as both sides step back from the heated rhetoric that could follow an Italian withdrawal from Iraq in the wake of a Prodi victory.
On the Italian side, Romano Prodi could emphasize his strategy of a “phased” Italian withdrawal: one that envisages replacing a military force with a civilian presence concentrated on aiding Iraqi reconstruction.
Washington would benefit from recognizing the fact that they can ill afford to lose another ally in Europe in such an acrimonious manner.
Adding to this mixture, there is the ever-present fear that Italy will face a terrorist strike just ahead of polling day. Given Spain’s reaction after the 3/11 bombings in Madrid, and the fact that Italy currently appears to be in a very similar domestic space, there is a fear that a fundamentalist group could decide to capitalize on this and strike ahead of the election with the intention of producing a similar result.
Were a lethal terrorist strike to happen, there is every chance that the left wing would mobilize their vote to elect Romano Prodi into office on a more forcefully anti-American mandate that could result in a too hasty Italian withdrawal from Iraq. Some in Washington might accuse Italians of appeasement, and the scenario could play out in a manner reminiscent of when Spain decided to withdraw from Iraq after their 2003 election.
This conjecture could be rendered moot: Prime Minister Berlusconi could still win the election, and terrorists may not manage to strike Italy.
Even if Prime Minister Berlusconi were reelected he would not be likely to serve a full term, and what shortened term he sat would be occupied organizing his succession. Italian troops would still be out of Iraq by the end of the year in accordance with Mr. Berlusconi’s current schedule.
Nevertheless, should current polls hold out, then Romano Prodi will win and there is a strong likelihood that relations between Rome and Washington will move into a more tense space. The troops will still be pulled out of Iraq, simply on a potentially shorter timeline.
American and Italian policy makers need to take steps now to institutionalize relations so that no matter who wins on April 9th, avenues of communication will be kept open and the Italo-American relationship will remain on a good footing. Otherwise, the United States will lose another ally in Europe, and Italians could find themselves damaging the gradual transatlantic warming.
posted by Raff @ 7:26 PM
1 Comments:
At 4:48 PM,
Anonymous said…
as you know, i watch italian politics with interest and try to contrast it to my native USA and my residence now in the UK - berlusconi is up for election and his opponents do not much mention the fact that he is up for criminal corruption charges - he has dragged in the husband of a british minister too - and now he is swiftly disassociating himself from said brit - his (Berlusconi's) UK lawyer Colombotti talks about how strange Mills is - and that he does not hold out much hope for him in an Italian corruption trial.
italy is beloved by brits - but think dark shades and beautiful women, wine and fast cars, sunny weather - revenge, violence and Mafia, murder and betrayal - very shakespearean - very british view of Italy - so it is not real? is italy for brits a fantasy place where anomalies such as a corrupt prime minister survive? i guess washington dc can claim its own place in that panoply with its former mayor having spent time in jail for drugs??
this mix of fantasy must influence how we decide about berlusconi - the dark side is out in the sun winning approval and votes. people were annoyed at him for being so damp in the recent TV debates.
i guess what i am pointing to is a level of unreality about things italian, at least in the UK. is it true?
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