Madrid, London….Rome?

To the regular readers, this will see somewhat familiar, as parts of it appeared the other day in the other Italian piece. However, i re-wrote it and gave it a new time peg, and they still didn't run it. Enjoy!

Madrid, London….Rome?

As we pass the two-year anniversary of the 3/11 Madrid bombings, there is a growing sense of anxiety that Italy may be about to face a similar attack. In Washington, there is a parallel sense of anxiety about the possible ramifications to Italo-American relations that such an attack could produce.

While it is premature to write off Prime Minister Berlusconi – he does lay claim to being the first Italian premier since the Second World War to survive an entire term – a terrorist attack on Italy would likely be read by Italians as a reprisal for his government’s involvement in the war in Iraq and the American-led war on terror, and could be the tipping point that secures an opposition victory.

His opponent, center-left former Italian premier Romano Prodi, has largely remained ahead in polls by a 4% margin, but is not currently on entirely stable ground leading a fractious coalition that has teetered towards the brink of collapse a number of times in the campaign so far.

However, the one topic that has guaranteed him universal support from his center-left ticket is stoking the fires of anti-Americanism and stressing the point that he will withdraw all Italian troops from Iraq once he is elected premier. A terrorist attack would galvanize supporters to unite behind him and ensure his victory.

To U.S. policy makers this sounds a great deal like the scenario played out before Spanish leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero’s election in 2003. The ouster of pro-American leader Jose Maria Aznar heralded the current period of tension where Prime Minister Zapatero and President George Bush have yet to communicate with each other.

The reasons for this dramatic cleavage in Spanish-American relations can be directly traced to the impact of the Madrid 3/11 bombings, in the wake of which Prime Minister Zapatero was swept into power. The bombings proved to be the spark that ignited the already bubbling anger amongst Spaniards at former Prime Minister Aznar’s decision to support American actions in Iraq.

It is easy to draw parallels with Spain then and the current situation in Italy, where Prime Minister Berlusconi led the nation into Iraq in support of the American invasion against the wishes of almost 70% of Italians. On the other side of the spectrum, Romano Prodi, like Mr. Zapatero, has vowed that he will withdraw troops from Iraq if he wins.

However, the truth is that Prime Minister Berlusconi is already gradually drawing down troops in Iraq; a move that is in part an acknowledgement of the domestic unpopularity of Italian involvement in Iraq, and in part the result of budgetary constraints. Mr. Prodi has stated that he will withdraw troops in line with Mr. Berlusconi’s timetable, without any Spanish “coups de theatre.”

There is a high chance, however, that this is exactly how a terrorist attack and the subsequent withdrawal could be read in Washington. Thus far, Washington has shown an affinity for Mr. Berlusconi’s leadership, while Mr. Prodi has never masked his allegiances to the European left-wing and their skepticism towards American motives.

Yet to allow Italo-American relations down this diplomatic path is neither necessary nor advisable. Not only will the United States lose another European ally, but Italy will find itself going against the grain of the current gradual warming in transatlantic relations championed by new German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

This outcome could be avoided as long as both sides step back from the heated rhetoric that could follow an Italian withdrawal from Iraq in the wake of a Prodi victory.

On the Italian side, Romano Prodi could emphasize his strategy of a “phased” Italian withdrawal: one that envisages replacing a military force with a civilian presence concentrated on aiding Iraqi reconstruction.

Washington would benefit from recognizing the fact that they can ill afford to lose another ally in Europe in such a manner. While Spain has remained a relatively fringe player in Europe, Italy has been a core member from the days of the European Coal and Steel Community.

The passions that would be stirred up by a terrorist attack may be hard to control. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic need to take steps now to institutionalize relations so that no matter who wins on April 9^th, and no matter what happens before then, avenues of communication will be kept open and the Italo-American relationship will remain on a good footing. Otherwise, the United States will needlessly lose another ally in Europe, and Italians could find themselves damaging the gradual transatlantic warming.