New EU State must unite against Putin

So i got something into the European Voice (a Brussels-centric newspaper that few will have heard of) - sadly, their wordage requirement means that they sliced it down somewhat, and lost a lot of the subtlety that i was trying for. Oh well, its another line on my cv....enjoy!

European Voice

Vol. 12 No. 21 : 1 June 2006
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New EU states must unite against Putin

By Raff

Many greeted Angela Merkel's election as a turning point in EU relations, both internally and with the outside world.

The new German chancellor had the outlook of an Atlanticist and showed herself keen to emphasise that the EU was a Europe of 25. During last year's precarious EU budget talks she was credited with ensuring that smaller member states - previously frozen out of the EU decision-making process by the Schröder-Chirac axis - were consulted.

But six months into her term the only major policy shift has come in Germany's new American viewpoint. All other relations have remained much the same. The severing of the personal link between Gerhard Schröder and Russian President Vladimir Putin produced only a slight chilling of relations with Russia and above all there was not the hoped for repudiation of the gas pipeline deal Angela Merkel's predecessor signed just before leaving office.

Instead, to the horror of Poland and the Baltic states, she has pushed forward in supporting the controversial pipeline (controversial in that it purposely circumvents them), declaring it a matter of German national interest.

While unsurprising, the decision reflects the broader European predicament about Russia: the need to be supportive of smaller member states versus the realpolitik of having to secure energy supplies. Similarly, Russia has to be kept onside over global security issues such as Iran and nuclear proliferation, but Russian actions in its immediate periphery - on Europe's borders - are often at odds with international democratic norms.

The EU's response to these twin quandaries has, thus far, been muddled. If national energy interests cannot be overridden, a greater effort could be made to achieve some sort of baseline consensus on Russia.

It should also be noted that the EU has more leverage with Russia than it appears to realise. Reports in Italy earlier this year of shortfalls in Russian gas supplies highlighted the need for investment in Russia's energy infrastructure.

Most steps taken so far appear only to have inflamed Russian nationalism and strengthened Vladimir Putin's hand.

What is needed is a basic pan-European consensus. Unfortunately, there are few major European leaders left who are comfortable enough in their positions to be able to take the lead.

But the Baltics and other central and east European member states have profound interests in influencing overall EU policy towards Russia. Were they able to start to develop detailed proposals among themselves which took account of energy concerns, they might at least start a debate on what direction EU-Russian relations should take. At the same time, larger member states could make more concerted efforts to reduce their dependency on Russian hydrocarbons.

Ultimately, Russia is able to act as it does because it has perfected a divide- and-rule strategy towards the EU. European leaders either feel beholden for energy reasons, or are simply too occupied with domestic issues to even begin to address Russian actions.

US Vice-President Dick Cheney has already taken a leadership role in criticising developments in Russia. Central and eastern European states should take advantage of this support to start to wrench European policy away from its current wavering.